Introduction and Overview
The outlook for the Asia-Pacific region in 2002 is favorable. Economic prospects are brighter as rising exports boost renewed growth in much of Southeast Asia and China. Accounting for over a quarter of the world's gross domestic product, the region continues to offer enormous economic opportunity. The steady development and consolidation of democratic governance, including in newly independent East Timor, is a profoundly important and positive trend. The continued growth of bilateral and multilateral diplomatic exchanges and the more recent initiation of military-to-military dialogues,. both bilateral and multilateral, offer optimism that regional disputes will be addressed and resolved peacefully, enhancing regional security and stability. However, these positive trends are set against a backdrop of ethnic and communal conflict and political tensions, including tensions arising from territorial disputes, trans-national crime, weaknesses in respect for human rights and the rule of law, and political and/or economic failure in some states. Such tensions undermine national as well as regional security.
International terrorist activity in the region exacerbates these tensions and complicates the regional security environment. Terrorism is a threat that, left unchallenged, will undermine the tremendous progress made in expanding democratic governance and the growth of market economies so vital to the freedom and prosperity of the region.
The United States will continue to contribute to improving the poJitico- military environment in the Asia-Pacific, through diplomatic means as well as its security presence and activities. The United States will work in all available channels and will use every available tool to enhance the capabilities of our regional partners to counter the terrorist threat.
Major Issues
Terrorism
Since September 11, the continuing revelations about al- Qaida's pervasive global infrastructure have served as a wake-up call for all the nations of the world. In Southeast Asia, the presence of Jemaah Islamiyah terrorists in Singapore and their advanced plot to bomb Embassies and U.S. military assets as well as the presence of KMM terrorists in Malaysia furthered international awareness of terrorism as an immediate, genuine threat. The Abu Sayyaf Group in the Philippines has long been a menace and the emergence of other networks and links to al-Qaida are a continuing concern. The closer we look at the region, the more we see the threads of international terrorism running through it.
Examining actual and potential threats, it is clear that even relatively simple plans can have a high impact. Quiet recruiting by al-Qaida today in a remote corner of a lawless area with a disillusioned population is difficult to monitor, and may not elicit a conclusive response. But those recruits will eventually get training, funding, and equipment to carry out the next attack. Small groups of individuals, such as those who have been arrested in Singapore, vividly demonstrated the danger of the terrorists' asymmetric approach. But they are only the tip of the iceberg. Constant vigilance will be key to avoiding future acts of terrorism.
Combating terrorism requires new depths of security cooperation, particularly in the intelligence sharing, financial and law enforcement fields. Accordingly, we congratulate the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia on establishment of the SEA Trilateral CT Agreement in May 2002. We hope this can be the foundation and impetus for expanded CT cooperation in the region. Strong, welcome signals of the determination of the nations of the region to cooperate against terrorism have also come from ASEAN, the ASEAN+3, APEC, and the ASEAN Regional Forum. The U.S. is working with these groups, as in co-hosting the March 2002 ARF workshop on Financial Measures Against Terrorism, to boost this common effort. We will also work bilaterally, as we are doing in the Philippines and with Malaysia based on the May 2002 U.S.-Malaysia Declaration of Cooperation on Counter-Terrorism Cooperation, to build national capabilities and international cooperation.
The Korean Peninsula
The Permanent Mission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to the United Nations informed the State Department in April 2002 that the DPRK was prepared to resume talks with the U.S. As of this writing, the U.S. and the DPRK were moving to determine the date for an initial meeting to begin a serious U.S.-DPRK dialogue.
In June 2001, President Bush proposed talks without preconditions to address a broad range of U.S. concerns with regard to the North's missile program and exports, implementation of the Agreed Framework, and conventional military posture, and other areas. As the President reiterated during his February 2002 visit to the ROK, the United States strongly supports President Kim Dae-jung's policy of engagement with North Korea, which has resumed after a seven-month hiatus. The U.S. looks to North Korea to engage in a sustained, meaningful, and productive dialogue with the Republic of Korea. DPRK follow- through on its previous political commitments is critical to overcoming the legacy of mistrust and the tensions that continue to endanger security on the peninsula. The United States will abide by its obligations under the Agreed Framework and calls on the DPRK to do the same. The United States will also continue to provide humanitarian aid to the people of North Korea.
The U.S. will work closely with our regional allies to further stability and reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula. The strong U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance is the foundation for the North-South progress that has occurred. Close U.S. and ROK coordination with Japan is also a key component of our strategy, carried out in regular meetings of the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG).
Despite the progress made, concerns remain about North Korea --which devotes half of its struggling economy to military development. North Korea has not played an active role in the international campaign against terrorism, and its development, production, and export of ballistic missiles are of particular concern.
China
Relations between China and the United States will continue to have a profound impact on the security of Asia. The United States seeks a cooperative, constructive, and candid relationship with China that contributes to the promotion of our shared interests in peace, security, and prosperity in the region. China shares our interest in eradicating the scourge of terrorism, and we have welcomed China's public and private expressions of support and cooperation in our counterterrorism efforts.
Even as the U.S. and China have shared interests, we have differences and concerns that we should address forthrightly and in an atmosphere of mutual respect. These differences and concerns include our views on restrictions on or the denial of human rights, including freedom of religion, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them. Military modernization continues to be a high priority of the Chinese leadership.
We view as a positive step China's willingness to support the peaceful resolution of issues in South Asia and the Korean Peninsula. We welcome China's engagement in Asia-Pacific and other organizations that promote security and economic development, including APEC, the ARF, and ASEAN+3. China's accession to the WTO is a major step towards economic reform and the full integration of China into the global economy; we will work with China to help ensure a smooth transition. Increased economic development, respect for human rights, and further economic and political reform in China will contribute to improved U.S.-China relations, security in the Asia-Pacific, and to China's regional and global role and standing.
Taiwan Strait
The United States remains committed to the peaceful resolution of cross Strait differences in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait. We do not wish to see provocation on either side of the Strait. The United States is committed to the security provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act and in this context provides Taiwan the defense articles and services it needs to defend itself. Taiwan's perceived self-defense needs are determined by the actions and deployments of the PRC.
South China Sea
The United States maintains an explicit position of neutrality with regard to the competing claims in the South China Sea. However, the U.S. seeks to prevent competing claims in the South China Sea from disrupting regional peace, security! and freedom of navigation.
Since the agreement in early 2000 to open ASEAN-China negotiations on a South China Sea "Code of Conduct," there have been no major conflicts or new occupations in the disputed areas. We note the restraint shown by the claimants in the last year and the effective moratorium on new occupations since
1998.
We look to the parties involved in the negotiations on the Code of Conduct for further progress and hope the Code will result in concrete commitments. We urge all parties to exercise continued restraint and pursue diplomatic efforts to find a resolution to the disputes.
Indonesia
We expect Indonesia's political and economic transition to continue. The United States' support for Indonesia's transition to democracy is unwavering. Our support for territorial integrity is unequivocal. In Aceh, the Moluccas, Sulawesi, Irian Jaya and elsewhere we urge all parties to avoid violence and reach comprehensive political and economic solutions. Indonesia will remain a high priority for US assistance programs focusing on facilitation of democratic transition and civil society institution building.
We recognize that Indonesia's military (TNI) is a critical national institution and its reform is crucial to completing a successful transition to democratic rule. We believe that progress on military reform and accountability for human rights violations is important to Indonesia's transition. We are looking for ways to increase military-to-military engagement, but this depends in large measure on TNI progress on professionalism and reform.
Recently, Indonesia has shown progress on economic reforms: reduction of fuel subsidies, reaching IMF and Paris Club agreements, and the successful sale of Bank Central Asia (BCA). These are positive steps. Much more, however, needs to be done. Particular attention needs to be paid to legal reform and the rule of law.
Burma
The U.S. strongly supports the efforts of UN Special Envoy Razali to foster dialogue between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the Burmese Government, with the goal of democratic rule. We have been encouraged by the release of Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in early May 2002. This is an important first step toward reform and national reconciliation, although it is only a first step and more needs to be done. We are also encouraged by the early April visit of UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights Pinheiro, when he met with both government officials and Aung San Suu Kyi. Pinheiro's visit may open the way for increased cooperation between the SPDC and UNCHR and other human rights organizations.
Philippines
The U.S. will continue to strengthen its security cooperation with the Philippines. President Macapagal-Arroyo's offers of support for our counterterrorism objectives after September 11 included U.S. use of Philippine military bases for transit and staging of U.S. assets used in Operation Enduring Freedom; enhanced intelligence cooperation; wide overflight clearances and logistics support, such as medicines, medical supplies and medical personnel.
During their November 2001 Washington meeting, Presidents Bush and Macapagal-Arroyo affirmed the strength of bilateral relations and agreed to intensify the U.S. training and assistance program for the Philippines. In January 2002, at the invitation of the Philippine government, the U.S. deployed forces to the Philippines to participate in joint counterterrorism exercises and activities to help the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) enhance its counter-terrorism capabilities. The duration of the exercise will depend on progress towards our joint counterterrorism objectives, but no U.S. forces will be permanently stationed in the Philippines. The U.S. also intends to maintain its programs to promote economic development and peaceful reconciliation in Mindanao.
U.S. ReGional Defense Posture and Activities
The United States will maintain significant and highly capable forces in East Asia and the Pacific Rim. This allows the United States to playa key role as a stabilizing force and security guarantor to allies. The United States will continue a forward presence policy, in cooperation with its allies, that reflects its interests in the region. Today, roughly half of the U.S. forces in the region are stationed in Japan, and close to 40% are stationed in the ROK. U.S. efforts to build on strong alliances with other nations in the region buttress the U.S. goal of ensuring stability in Southeast Asia, an area of growing economic and political importance.
The U.S.-Japan alliance is the linchpin of U.S. security strategy in Asia. The U.S. and Japan have moved actively in recent years to update the framework and structure of joint cooperation and strengthen the bilateral relationship. Our alliance relationships with Australia and Thailand are also key elements of U.S. strategy. Australia is the southern anchor of our shared Pacific interests, a treaty ally for 50 years who has stood with the U.S. in every war of the last century, and of this one. A host of annual exercises, culminating in Tandem Thrust, ensure that we face challenges in an integrated, fully inter- operational, and effective way. Our exercise and military education programs with Thailand reinforce our close security relationship. The capstone for each year's cooperative activities is Cobra Gold, the largest U.S. military exercise in the Asia-Pacific. In 2002, over 22,000 U.S. and Thai troops trained together in a variety of scenarios, including non-combatant evacuation operations, counter- terrorism, and peacekeeping. Together, our alliances with Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia provide a solid framework for security across East Asia and the Southwest Pacific.
In spite of positive developments on the Korean Peninsula, the military threat posed by the DPRK continues and the United States remains committed to its treaty obligations to assist in the defense of the ROK in the event of North Korean aggression. The United States continues to work with regional allies, partners, and friends toward a shared goal of a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. .
Threats to the U.S. and international peace and security are diverse and difficult to predict. September 11th demonstrated the need to deal with the full range of threats that we face, from terrorism, to the use of weapons of mass destruction by states and non-state actors, to long-range missiles intended to intimidate and blackmail us by holding our cities hostage to attack. Hostile states, including a number that sponsor terrorism, are investing in and seeking weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles. To meet this threat, we need a strategy that includes non-proliferation, counter-proliferation, and defenses. We also need a new concept of deterrence not based solely on the threat of nuclear retaliation. The new environment also offers an opportunity for reduced reliance on offensive nuclear retaliatory forces, as demonstrated in the new strategic framework with Russia that is founded on common interest and cooperation and advances our goal of having the lowest number of nuclear weapons required to meet our national security needs, including our obligations to our allies.
The United States will continue and build upon bilateral and multilateral exercises with key states in the region. The United States has long shared with Asia-Pacific nations the objective of strengthening regional cooperation as a means to address common problems and deal with emerging issues. United States defense cooperation efforts in the region, including a variety of multilateral activities, are consistent with this long-standing objective and with ASEAN Regional Forum objectives.
United States' regional security interests include transparency, mutual understanding, and regional cooperation. The United States is approaching these objectives by building bilateral and multilateral military-to-military cooperation and capabilities to better face non-traditional trans-national security challenges such as drug trafficking, piracy, terrorism, and humanitarian crises. To broaden this effort to increase security understanding and approaches to these various problems the U.S. Department of Defense has recently held policy talks with Indonesia, Singapore, and other countries in the region.
Along this line, the Pacific Command (PACOM) continues to provide education and training to deepen regional security dialogue and to develop crisis action planning, peacekeeping (consistent with UN standards), humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and search and air rescue skills.
With the advent of international terrorism to the region, the need for regional security cooperation and multilateral training has become even more pronounced. PACOM has introduced CT training and exercises to several countries in the region and anticipates being able to do so on a region wide basis. Of particular emphasis is the need for CT mil-to-mil cooperation, particularly in the intelligence field.
The continued strengthening of U.S. security dialogues and confidence- building measures with the members of ASEAN and through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) are among the many ways the United States is seeking to enhance politico-military ties with Allies and friends in the Asia-Pacific region.
The United States will continue and build upon bilateral and multilateral exercises with key states in the region. The United States has long shared with Asia-Pacific nations the objective of strengthening regional cooperation as a means to address common problems and deal with emerging issues. United States defense cooperation efforts in the region, including a variety of multilateral activities, are consistent with this long-standing objective and with ASEAN Regional Forum objectives.
United States' regional security interests include transparency, mutual understanding, and regional cooperation. The United States is approaching these objectives by building bilateral and multilateral military-to-military cooperation and capabilities to better face non-traditional trans-national security challenges such as drug trafficking, piracy, terrorism, and humanitarian crises. To broaden this effort to increase security understanding and approaches to these various problems the U.S. Department of Defense has recently held policy talks with Indonesia, Singapore, and other countries in the region.
Along this line, the Pacific Command (PACOM) continues to provide education and training to deepen regional security dialogue and to develop crisis action planning, peacekeeping (consistent with UN standards), humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and search and air rescue skills.
With the advent of international terrorism to the region, the need for regional security cooperation and multilateral training has become even more pronounced. PACOM has introduced CT training and exercises to several countries in the region and anticipates being able to do so on a region wide basis. Of particular emphasis is the need for CT mil-to-mil cooperation, particularly in the intelligence field.
The continued strengthening of U.S. security dialogues and confidence- building measures with the members of ASEAN and through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) are among the many ways the United States is seeking to enhance politico-military ties with Allies and friends in the Asia-Pacific region.
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